Aluminium Price Prediction for Next Week

LME Aluminium prices closed the week higher, supported by Middle East supply disruptions and relatively low raw material costs, which encouraged Chinese smelters to maintain high production levels. Despite, China's aluminium product output declined 1.2% year-on-year to around 4.8 million tonnes in September, indicating weakness in downstream demand. However, Chinese aluminium exports increased 25.9% year-on-year, reaching a three-month high, while Indonesian exports exceeded 150,000 tonnes in August. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern smelters are gradually recovering, with Al Taweelah targeting full production recovery by Q1 2027. Easing physical premiums and Rio Tinto's extension of Bell Bay operations through 2031 indicate improving supply prospects, potentially limiting further price gains.

Aluminium price has resumed on a positive note at 324.20, traded back & forth in a tight range between 320 - 325 throughout the week, however, price has shown a signs of strength on Friday and managed to settle on a positive note at 326.10, having a mild weekly gain of +0.71%. Even after this price rebound, price is still trading below its all key moving averages i.e. 20, 50 and 200-DEMA levels placed at 330.50, 338.25 and 335.25 respectively. Crucial support level would be at Daily SAR level placed at 315.50. The momentum indicator, RSI has been rebounded from its lows and trailed at 40 on Daily timeframe. Also, we can observe a convergence on Daily MACD below zero-line along side declining negative histograms, collectively suggests some bullish bias in Aluminium price.

Overall, the outlook for MCX Aluminium remains moderately bearish, although traders should exercise caution near the support zone. A decisive breakdown could extend the correction, while a sustained rebound above immediate resistance would be required to improve the technical outlook.