

U.S. natural gas futures experienced their largest weekly decline in three years, settling at $3.95/mmBtu, down ~26% from $5.29. This drop follows a weather-driven peak amidst the coldest early December temperatures in years, although forecasts indicate milder weather ahead. Warmer temperature predictions across much of the U.S. are expected to reduce heating demand, contributing to longer-term liquidation pressures in futures. The EIA has slightly increased its 2025 NatGas production forecast to 107.74 bcf/day. Current production is near record levels, with active rigs at a two-year high. Nat-gas inventories fell by 177 bcf for the week ending December 5, exceeding market expectations and the five-year average draw.
After a gapped opening at 468.50, MCX Natural Gas December contract has declined for past five consecutive sessions, posting a weekly decline of nearly -22% and managed to close on a bearish note at 377.10. Price has settled below the 20-DEMA level placed at 411.40, which will be the immediate resistance level. 4-hourly SAR is placed at 390.80. On the downside, crucial support levels would be at 100 and 200-DEMA levels placed at 342.20 and 316.20 respectively. OI levels remained back & forth since the price has been fallen from the peak of 494.90, which signifies indecision among the traders who are looking for the holdings through expiry. RSI levels remained below 50 level on Daily and 4-hourly chart. On MACD, we can observe a bearish crossover on Daily chart along with the negative histograms.
We are expecting Moderately Bearish trend in next week in Natural Gas and traders may look for Sell-on-rise opportunity.
| Support 2 | Support 1 | CMP | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 342.20 | 360 | 376.5 | 390 | 411 |
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