Global gas prices steadied as ample storage and record production offset weather-driven cooling demand, while LNG trade rerouting and geopolitical risks kept spot volatility elevated. Near-term direction hinges on late-season heat and any disruption to major LNG shipping routes.
Natural Gas prices witnessed a reversal this week as the September contract formed an Evening Star pattern following a short-term recovery within the broader long-term bearish trend. Prices fell by nearly 9% over the week, slipping from potential retracement levels and finally closing at 261.4, with a Doji candle formation, reflecting indecision after the steep decline.
NYMEX Natural Gas closed below key weekly moving averages at $3.12, further reinforcing the prevailing bearish bias. Sustaining below these averages suggests continued weakness unless a strong recovery emerges.
Momentum indicators are also supportive of the downside outlook. The RSI has slipped to 45.5, drifting below the neutral zone, which indicates waning momentum. Additionally, Open Interest declined by 3,100 lots, signaling unwinding of positions and reduced participation from buyers at higher levels.
Overall, the short-term bias remains negative, with traders advised to adopt a cautious approach. Any pullbacks towards the 282–302 resistance zone may face pressure, while dips near supports could invite short-covering but are unlikely to reverse the broader trend unless momentum and participation improve.
Key levels to watch remain defined. On the downside, immediate support is placed at 253–238, with the lower end expected to act as a strong base in case of extended weakness. On the upside, resistance is capped at 282–302, which must be cleared decisively for any sustainable recovery to take shape.
Support 2 | Support 1 | CMP | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
---|---|---|---|---|
238 | 253 | 261.90 | 282 | 302 |
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Prediction given by Technical Research Team - Choice