Crude Oil Price Forecast for Next Week

Crude Oil Price Forecast for Next Week (16th - 20th February 2026)

MCX crude oil futures head for a second consecutive weekly decline. Prices remained under pressure amid persistent oversupply concerns, eased geopolitical tension, compounded by a broad selloff across financial markets that weighed on overall risk sentiment. Several fundamental factors contributed to the weakness. The International Energy Agency reiterated that the oil market is likely to face a surplus of just over 3.7 million barrels per day in 2026, marking a record annual average glut, while also cutting its global oil demand forecast for that year. Additional pressure came from reports of a large crude stock build and signals from both OPEC and the IEA that supply could outpace demand later this year. On the geopolitical front, ongoing diplomatic talks between US President Donald Trump and Iran reduced immediate geopolitical risk to supply. Meanwhile, Venezuelan oil flows are gradually returning as China resumes purchases of cargoes previously linked to the U.S., weighing on prices.

Crude Oil prices witnessed profit booking at higher levels and declined by -5.35% over the week after failing to sustain near recent highs. Despite the correction, prices managed to close at 5724, remaining above all key moving averages 20-50-100-200 DEMA placed at 5714, 5565, 5508 and 5505 respectively. This indicates that the broader trend structure continues to remain positive, and the recent decline appears to be corrective in nature rather than a trend reversal. Open Interest declined by nearly 4,000 lots amid price fluctuations, reflecting long liquidation and short-term profit booking by market participants. The absence of a sharp rise in OI during the decline suggests that fresh short positions are limited, helping prices to hold above the major support zone. The rising trendline support near current levels further strengthens the technical base and limits immediate downside risk. The RSI is hovering near the 52–59 zone, indicating consolidation with a mild bullish bias and no signs of overbought or oversold conditions. The RSI continues to trade above its average line, supporting underlying strength. The MACD remains close to the signal line with a stable histogram, suggesting temporary loss of momentum rather than a bearish reversal. Volume activity has remained moderate, confirming that the recent decline is driven by selective unwinding rather than aggressive selling pressure.

Overall, Crude Oil prices continue to maintain a bullish structure as long as the key support zone remains intact, adopting a buy-on-dips strategy near strong support levels.

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Prediction given by Technical Research Team - Choice.