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Improving Fundamentals make us more bullish!We maintain our BUY rating on UTCEM and raise the target price to INR 15,210, supported by improved volume and EBITDA assumptions, cost efficiencies, better cement pricing, and a shift to an EV/CE-based valuation approach. We project EBITDA to grow at 26.7% CAGR over FY25–28E, driven by integration of recent acquisitions (Kesoram/India Cements) and a well-diversified presence, especially in southern and eastern regions where prices have firmed up. With ROCE expected to improve from 8.4% in FY25 to 15.6% by FY28E, UTCEM is positioned strongly for consistent performance. Key risks include a construction slowdown and volatility in petcoke prices. Like-for-like volume growth (adjusted for Kesoram & India Cements) is muted, realisations & EBITDA/t are in line with expectations: UTCEM reported Q4FY25 consolidated revenue of INR 230.6 Bn (+13% YoY, +29.7% QoQ) and EBITDA of INR 46.2 Bn (+12.3% YoY, +59.5% QoQ), largely in line with market expectations. Volumes rose 16.9% YoY to 41.0 Mnt (including Kesoram & India Cements), slightly above estimates, though lower realisations at INR 5,622/t (-3.4% YoY) were a weak spot. EBITDA/t stood at INR 1,126/t, below estimates but adjusts to ~INR 1,200/t after factoring in the new acquisitions, aligning with expectations. Overall, the performance was stable with no major surprises. Targeting 215.9 Mnt of capacity by FY27 end, which will lead to 10% volume CAGR over FY25-28E: UTCEM plans to ramp up its cement capacity from 188.8 Mtpa in FY25 to 215 Mtpa by FY27, reflecting a 6.7% CAGR. To support this, the FY26 capex target has been increased from INR 90 Bn to INR 100 Bn. We expect this expansion, along with recent acquisitions, to drive a 9.9% volume CAGR over FY25–28E, led by 18% growth in FY26 and 6% annually thereafter. Management expects capex to ease post-FY26 as most major projects near completion. Growth in EBITDA/t to drive from focus on total cost reduction by 300/t by FY27: UTCEM is expanding its Waste Heat Recovery System from 351 MW in FY25 to 500 MW by FY27 and aims to reach 2.1 GW of renewable energy capacity by FY27, which should cover ~30% of its energy needs. These steps are expected to reduce power and fuel costs by ~INR 100/t. Additionally, a planned 25 km cut in lead distance may lower freight costs by ~INR 60/t. With this cost focus, EBITDA/t is projected to rise to INR 1,221 in FY26E and INR 1,326 in FY27E
Revenue & EBIT marginally below estimates, PAT beats expectations even after excluding one-time exceptional gain Revenue for Q4FY25 came at INR 15.2Bn up, 16.0% YoY and 3.4% QoQ (vs consensus est. at INR 15.4Bn). EBIT for Q4FY25 came at INR 2.6Bn, up 20.4% YoY and 4.5% QoQ (vs consensus est. at INR 2.7Bn). EBIT margin was up 64bps YoY and 17bps QoQ to 17.3% (vs consensus est. at 17.5%). PAT for Q4FY25 stood at INR 2.4Bn, up 47.5% YoY and 30.9% QoQ (vs consensus est. at INR 2.0Bn). Deal wins rise to USD 280Mn in Q4FY25 despite macroeconomic challenges: KPIT closed strong Q4FY25 deals worth USD 280Mn, including a major partnership with Mercedes-Benz—strengthening its position in SDV space alongside earlier wins like Honda and Renault. While full-year guidance is on hold due to macro uncertainty, KPIT expects gradual growth in H1 and stronger momentum in H2FY26. Short-term softness may arise from delayed ramp-ups and cautious client spending. However, KPIT is set to benefit from vendor consolidation and cost-focused deals as global OEMs tackle competition from China. Growth remains driven by Passenger Cars, with Commercial Vehicles and Off-Highway segments adding diversity. Asia leads regional growth, with Europe and the US expected to pick up in the second half. Flat margin outlook as KPIT balances growth & investment strategies: KPIT reported a Q4FY25 EBITDA margin of 21.1%, meeting its full-year guidance of 21.0%, up from 20.3% in FY24. While no clear FY26E margin guidance was given, KPIT aims to maintain or slightly improve margins while investing in growth. Focus areas include AI-driven productivity and disciplined investments. China remains a medium-term margin opportunity, though its current contribution is small. We expect a minor 10bps margin dip in FY26E due to softer revenue and cost pressures, with more clarity expected after Q1FY26. View & Valuation: KPIT's strong deal wins and healthy pipeline signal strong long[1]term growth potential. However, near to mid-term top-line growth may face challenges due to macro uncertainties, especially trade-related risks. The company’s significant exposure to Europe, which is experiencing an economic slowdown and a potential threat of recession, as well as the automotive sector, impacted by US tariff policies, pose risks. Consequently, we’ve reduced our estimates by 4%, assuming a conservative, flat margin outlook for FY26E and lower our PE multiple to 35x (from 40x earlier). We expect Revenue/ EBITDA/ PAT to grow at CAGR of 17.3%/ 18.6%/ 13.8% over FY25–27E & reduce our target price to INR 1,520 based on FY27E EPS of INR 40.0 while revise our rating to ADD.
TVSL Motor Outperforms Estimates Across the Board Q4FY25 standalone revenues stood at INR 95,504Mn, ahead of consensus est. of INR 92,831Mn, registering a growth of 16.9% YoY and 5.0% QoQ. Total volumes during the quarter were 12,16,286 units, up 14.5% YoY and 0.4% QoQ. ASP improved by 2.1% YoY to INR 78,521 driven by favourable product mix. EBITDA saw a robust growth of 43.9% YoY and 23.2% QoQ to INR 13,326Mn (vs consensus est. at INR 11,693Mn). Margin improvement was driven by lower raw material costs and PLI incentive. PAT for Q4FY25 reported at INR 8,521Mn, (vs consensus est. INR 7,312Mn), up 75.5% YoY and 37.8% QoQ. EPS for Q4FY25 is INR17.9. Company Outlook & Guidance: The company is set to grow faster than the industry, backed by strong demand for premium 2Ws (Raider, Apache, Ronin, Jupiter), electric 3Ws (TVS King), and new launches in both EV and ICE segments. Sales volume is expected to rise at 10.8% CAGR between FY25E and FY27E. Powering Ahead in the ICE Segment with Strong Growth: TVSL beat the domestic ICE 2W market in Q4 with 9% sales growth vs. the industry’s 7%, and saw a 23% jump in international 2W volumes. It hit a record 19.0% domestic 2W market share. While motorcycle share dipped to 9.8%, scooter share rose to 29.3% on the back of strong premium ICE and EV offerings. To keep up the pace, TVSL plans over INR 10Bn in capex by FY26, targeting product development, new tech, and a Norton brand comeback by end-FY26. Electrifying the Future with Strong EV Momentum, TVS EV Volumes Jump 44% in FY25, 54% in Q4: TVSL's EV segment is a major growth driver, with FY25 volumes jumping 44% to 2.8 lakh units from 1 lakh in FY24. Q4 EV 2W sales rose 54% YoY to 76,000 units, led by strong demand for the iQube and the launch of TVS King EV Max. The brand is scaling up with ~950 iQube dealerships and expanding into markets like LATAM and Morocco. View and Valuation: Considering the volatile global economic environment, including persistent inflation and elevated living costs, we revise our FY26/FY27 EPS estimates downwards by 3.3%/1.8%. Accordingly, we downgrade the stock to an ‘ADD’ rating with a revised target price of INR 2,920, valuing the core business at 34x FY27E EPS (maintained) and assigning a value of INR 168 to TVS Credit
LTTS reported Q4FY25 performance below estimates Revenue for Q4FY25 came at INR 29.8Bn, up 17.5% YoY and 12.4% QoQ (vs consensus est. at INR 30.3Bn). EBIT for Q4FY25 came at INR 3.9Bn, down 8.0% YoY and 6.6% QoQ (vs consensus est. at INR 4.5Bn). EBIT margin was down 367bps YoY and 270bps QoQ to 13.2% (vs consensus est. at 14.8%). PAT for Q4FY25 stood at INR 3.1Bn, down 8.7% YoY and 3.5% QoQ (vs consensus est. at INR 3.5Bn). LTTS achieved record TCV with USD 80Mn+ deal; Double digit USD CC growth expected in FY26E: LTTS posted strong deal wins in Q4FY25 and FY25, hitting record large deal TCV bookings. A solid pipeline and ongoing big deal talks should keep momentum strong into FY26. However, softness in Sustainability & Mobility, delayed ramp-ups, and macro challenges may lead to a soft H1FY26, with overall FY26E growth projected at 7.5% in CC terms. EBIT margin target of mid-16% by Q4FY27E & ambitious hiring plans: LTTS reported a Q4FY25 EBIT margin of 13.2%, with FY25 closing at 14.9%. Margin dipped due to Intelliswift consolidation, macro headwinds, and customer investments. LTTS targets a mid-16% margin by FY28, but we expect a modest rise to 15.8% by FY27E. Headcount grew with the Intelliswift deal, and LTTS plans to hire 2,500 freshers as it gears up for a strong FY26. View and Valuation: LTTS has gained strong deal momentum, but macroeconomic uncertainty & delayed IT spending decisions may hinder near to mid-term growth. Consequently, we have trimmed our estimates by 4–8%. However, we assign a PE multiple of 30x (earlier 32x), still above other Tier-II ER&D peers, supported by better revenue visibility in favorable environment, healthier return ratios, & better margins. We expect Revenue/ EBIT/ PAT to grow at CAGR of 10.9%/ 14.4%/ 14.3% over FY25-27E. Consequently, we maintain our rating to BUY but lower our target price to INR4,850, based on FY27E EPS of INR 161.6.
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